Sharing Indus waters

RECENT developments relating to the distribution of irrigation water among the provinces sound somewhat unsettling in view of the severe water crisis facing the country. At the heart of the controversy is the annulment by the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) of the ministerial committee decision of 1994 regarding the sharing of water in proportion worked out on the basis of the historical record. The notification issued in this respect by the authority had given way to the 1991 water accord. However, according to reports, Punjab, which may face a further 10 per cent shortage during the kharif season if the annulment takes effect, has apparently taken strong exception to the move. On Wednesday, it again refused to accept the notification issued by Irsa on the plea that under the law the authority could not issue one.

Explaining the Punjab’s refusal, an irrigation department spokesman said that when the Chief Executive’s secretariat wrote a letter in June asking Irsa to issue a notification to annul the 1994 interpretation of the ministerial committee of the 1991 water accord, the authority had pointed out that it lacked legal power to issue a notificaton. Instead, it had asked the ministry of water and power to notify the CE’s decision. The ministry, for its part, had then refused to issue the notification, saying that only the Council of Common Interests was competent to overturn the decision.

Under the circumstances, a smooth implementation of the 1991 water accord would seem to be doubtful. Earlier, there were reports that Punjab was expected to take recourse to legal remedy against the decision, indicating that the controversy over the distribution of agricultural water was not likely to end very soon. What prompted the CE’s secretariat to ask Irsa to issue a notification to annul the 1994 interpretation of the 1991 water accord is not clear. Reports, however, suggest that Sindh will have its supplies improved by six per cent as a result of it, meaning that the decision may have been dictated by concern about recurrent shortages in the province. Nevertheless, the Punjab still maintained that the decision of 1994 was in line with the water accord, which allowed distribution of water among the provinces during the period of shortage on the basis of the historical record. In other words, it suggested that there was enough provision in the 1994 decision for meeting shortages in the provinces.

The ongoing water crisis has exposed serious flaws in water management strategies. Acccording to irrigation experts, the 1991 accord distributes water on the basis of 114 million acre feet that is not available in the system. In any case, a decline in agricultural production to be caused by the water shortage would deal a blow to the economy. Already, the wheat crop is under serious threat. Pakistan suffered a loss of about three billion dollars during 2000-2001 due to a drought-like situation. Moreover, there are projections that the country is going to face a severe water crisis during the next 25 years when its population swells by almost 50 per cent. As such, a comprehensive strategy must be evolved for a judicious distribution of water among the provinces. The needs of the farmers should be given proper weightage to ensure equitable distribution and urgent steps taken to avoid undue provincial friction and acrimony.

Silent majority’s dilemma

PRESIDENT Pervez Musharraf is right when he says that images in the western media of extremists protesting in the streets of Pakistani cities do not represent an accurate picture of the public opinion. The president wants the silent majority — those who do not support the extremists — to make its voice heard. However, this is easier said than done. The best way to do this would be to hold rallies, and some have been held, albeit with relatively low turnouts. But it is not as simple as that. The extremists, who spew fire and venom, see things in black and white: America represents evil, the Taliban are good, and, thus, an attack on Afghanistan becomes an attack on Islam. However, those who oppose the extremists do not necessarily read the situation through a black-or-white lens. For them, opposition to the extremists does not necessarily mean support for the government stand, primarily because the latter would involve condoning the bombing and the civilian deaths.

Having said that: even if the moderate and tolerant were to come out in the streets or decide, as the president put it, to stand up to a mosque preacher who spreads hate, will the law be there to protect them if matters get out of hand? Unfortunately, experience has shown that past governments, and perhaps slightly less so this one, have often gone out of their way to appease extremist elements. And when it came to protecting those from the silent majority who would like to stand up, the government was hardly ever there. Since Sept 11 and after the bombing, the government has given considerable leeway to the organizers of the Pakistan-Afghan Defence Council to hold rallies, knowing what their street power is. However, the same sort of flexibility was not forthcoming when it came to allowing citizens’ groups to hold rallies — rallies that would have attracted far fewer people, no doubt, but would have served to restore some balance to media coverage. If the president wants the silent majority to speak up, the least he could do is to send an appropriate message to elements in the state apparatus who tend to look at civil society with suspicion and derision.

A false alarm

IT is comforting news that the anthrax scare, at least in Pakistan, has turned out to be nothing more than a false alarm. The Federal Minister for Health, Dr Abdul Malik Kasi, confirmed at a news conference in the capital that not a single positive case was found amongst the one hundred or so samples of suspected anthrax cases tested so far by the National Institute of Health in Islamabad. Since the first suspected anthrax-containing letter was found in the British High Commission in Islamabad, scores of other suspected cases have been reported from all over the country. Post offices went on alert and workers were supplied with masks and gloves. Other public and private organizations also took precautionary measures, especially after a letter suspected to contain anthrax powder was found in a newspaper office in Karachi.

Mercifully, the public has taken the anthrax threat nonchalantly, unlike what happened in America, where the anthrax threat was blown out of proportions by the media, which gave minute-to-minute updates about the number of deaths, exposures and infections. This media hype seemed all the more grotesque when one realizes that anthrax cannot be a weapon of mass destruction since infection is caused by exposure to the anthrax spores and not by contagion, and the death rate is comparatively low. While the American people seemed to be all but nervous wrecks, the major beneficiaries have been the pharmaceutical companies as millions started taking antibiotics as a precautionary measure.

Although the anthrax threat has been a hoax so far in this country, it is just as well that the authorities are alive to the situation. Dr Kasi revealed that the interior ministry had, in cooperation with a sensitive intelligence agency and the ministry of health, set up a special cell to hunt down those responsible for sending the letters containing the powdery substances. Pranksters such as these, as well as those making false bomb threats over the telephone, should be caught and given exemplary punishments. Those who try to spread terror in this manner are no less terrorists than those who actually kill and maim by their acts of terror.