Fall of Kabul

WITH the entry of the Northern Alliance forces into Kabul on Tuesday, the entire military and political situation in Afghanistan has undergone a total transformation. The northern and western provinces, including the cities of Herat and Mazar-i-Sharif having already fallen into the hands of the Alliance forces earlier, the fall of Kabul is a devastating blow to the Taliban. In fact, the Taliban did not choose to fight. The Northern commanders ignored the restraint that was expected of them. They had been told by the US-led world coalition not to enter Kabul, for that would only complicate matters. While it is true that they fought the ground battle, they owed their easy victories to America’s air offensive. Without America’s carpet-bombing of the Taliban’s front-lines, the Northern forces could not have achieved the easy victory they have won. The fault perhaps lay with Washington and Islamabad for being unrealistic: no victorious commander would deny him glory and halt before a capital city if it were ready to fall to him.

However, now that the Northerners’ occupation of Kabul is a fact, Afghanistan’s neighbours must obviously feel concerned about what lies in store for the Afghan people. The Northern Alliance is an entirely non-Pakhtoon grouping, while the Taliban are wholly made of the Pakhtoons. Thus, neither is in a position to give the country a stable government that would command support and allegiance all around and begin Afghanistan’s post-war reconstruction. Like the Taliban, the Northern Alliance, too, does not have a very enviable human rights record. In fact, their entry into Kabul last time was marked by widespread looting, plunder and summary executions. Given the fact that Kabul is a predominantly Pakhtoon city, its indefinite occupation by the Northern forces could produce a severe backlash from the Pakhtoons, not all of them necessarily pro-Taliban.

It is time the US-led world coalition acted with speed to avert what could turn out to be a recipe for disaster. On Monday in New York, the foreign ministers of the Six Plus Two Group issued a declaration, reaffirming support to UN Representative Lakhdar Brahimi’s efforts for a broad-based government in Kabul. The declaration believed that the new government must also satisfy the urgings of the Afghan citizens, protect human rights, bring peace and stability to the country and the region and meet Afghanistan’s international obligations, such as those relating to drugs. It is obvious that a government which enjoys the support of all of Afghanistan’s ethnic communities, can alone come up to the international community’s expectations. The immediate need is to devise a mechanism whereby a neutral force could take over from the Northern Alliance forces and manage Kabul till a broad-based government is formed. No such scheme exists at the moment, and if there is one, it has not been made public. But hints have appeared in the western press that a UN force drawn from some Muslim countries — Bangladesh and Turkey, for instance, — could be entrusted with the task of keeping peace pending the installation of a multi-ethnic and broad-based government. With the military reverses suffered by the Taliban, there is also now a fair possibility that non-Taliban Pakhtoon leaders would be willing to play a role in the new set-up. Until now they were lying low out of fear. One hopes the Six Plus Two governments would now speed up consultations and develop a consensus on a new government. It must be realized that continued occupation of Kabul by the Northerners could only complicate matters and lead to terrible bloodshed.

Nightmare in New York

FOR several tense hours on Monday, the already traumatized people of New York seemed to relive their worst nightmare. Minutes after taking off from JFK airport, an American Airlines flight came plummeting down from the skies, spreading its wreckage across a quiet residential district of the city. For many residents, the incident initially seemed like a repeat of the terrible events of September 11 when two hijacked aircraft had flown into the World Trade Center causing death and destruction. As time ticked away, bits of further information began to come to light. The Airbus 300, carrying 246 passengers and nine crew, was heading for Santa Domingo. Eyewitnesses claimed that they saw the plane’s engine fall off before the aircraft went out of control and crashed. The question most residents, as well as people round the world, were asking was: had the suicide bombers struck again?

With emergency services on high alert and fighter jets circling the skies over New York, there was a palpable sense of fear in the air. Already on the edge following the September 11 attacks and the subsequent anthrax scare, the people of New York braced themselves for the worst. As time wore on, dozens of theories began to be debated on television. Thankfully, the media as well as the authorities did not jump to any hasty conclusions. After sifting through a jumble of eyewitness accounts and other evidence, most experts and pundits concluded that rather than sabotage, the likeliest cause of the disaster was a mechanical failure, poor maintenance or structural problems. While not ruling out terrorism as a cause, the focus of the investigation gradually shifted elsewhere. The world, meanwhile, heaved a collective sigh of relief.

Tragic though the incident was, the consequences of a renewed attack by terrorists on the US at this juncture were too frightening to contemplate. The real losers in the incident are the multi-billion dollar aviation and tourism-related industries. Following the September 11 attacks, most airlines had suffered a steep decline in business and the hotel and tourism industries were also plunged into a deep crisis. Whatever the reasons behind the latest crash, the post-September 11 fear of flying can only increase and further exacerbate an already desperate situation.

Craftsmen in distress

AMONG the many casualties of the war in Afghanistan is an industry that has long provided employment to about a million Afghan refugees in Pakistan. Since the September 11 terror attacks in the US, the Pakistan-based Afghan carpet industry has been in deep crisis. Orders from the US and Europe, once the main markets for Afghan rugs and carpets, have dropped dramatically, with customers either boycotting Afghan products or waiting for better days to return before buying such luxury items. This despite the fact that the build-up to Christmas is traditionally a period of high sales. As a result of this steep downturn, as many as 700,000 Afghan refugees may find themselves out of work within a month. Many weaving factories are halting production as sales slump. One business that had posted sales of $ 600,000 last October has barely registered sales worth $ 50,000 in the same month this year.

Many skilled refugees make a decent living from this trade, with entire families working from home on piece rates. Several manufacturers who had set up colonies for Afghan carpet workers are now being forced to close them down. Carpet trade representatives have approached UNHCR to bail them out, pointing out that each Afghan family that makes a living from this business is no longer dependent on aid. The manufacturers also argue that the trade keeps many young men occupied and out of trouble. If the industry collapses, the men may well take up arms again and return to the battlefront or turn to crime. International aid agencies and NGOs must take urgent notice of this matter and act to prevent the collapse of an industry that provides employment to a large number of people who would otherwise become destitute and dependent on hand-outs.