| November 8, 2001 | Thursday | Shaba’an 21, 1422 |
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Controlling violence
PLEDGES of economic assistance for Pakistan in this hour of dire need continue to pour in. On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates offered 265 million dollars in highly concessional loan. A day earlier the Asian Development Bank announced that it had enhanced this year’s aid to Pakistan by 324 million dollars, raising the total to $950 million, all which is being offered on concessional terms. Both these packages of assistance are for financing development projects with the ADB focusing mostly on social infrastructure while the amount pledged by the UAE will be channelled towards physical infrastructure projects, especially for expanding power and water capacities. The UAE loan, being made available on a concessional two per cent interest rate and 15 years’ repayment period with a grace period of five years, was announced by the visiting UAE minister of information, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan, while the ADB president Tadao Chino, who came to Pakistan to make an on-the-spot study of Islamabad’s needs, himself made public his bank’s proposal to enhance its assistance to Pakistan for the current year from 626 to 950 million dollars.
The US has already announced its commitment to make available to Pakistan an initial cash assistance of 600 million dollars. Japan, which was Pakistan’s largest donor until we carried out our nuclear tests in May 1998, has also lifted its sanctions and one hopes that very soon Tokyo would resume its assistance which had averaged around 500 million dollars annually in the past. The Europeans have not only announced liberal assistance but have also offered increased market access to Pakistani goods from January next year. The World Bank and the IMF are seriously considering Pakistan’s request for a medium-term assistance of a billion dollars over the next three years from the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Following the approval of this request in late December this year, the Paris Club is expected to take up our application for rescheduling of most of our bilateral debt amounting to a little over 12 billion dollars. Some bilateral donors are considering our request for debt write-off, while some others, including Canada and partly Britain, have already converted their loans into development assistance. So, all in all the situation on the aid front looks highly optimistic as of today. However, it is likely to take at least about six months to a year for this scenario to become a reality. Until then, we seem to be on our own.
The official economic managers, therefore, have on their hands two formidable tasks. One, to get their priorities right before the actual aid starts flowing in. Secondly, they will have to come up with some imaginative and innovative plans to keep the adverse impact of the immediate problems arising out of the war efforts of the international coalition against terrorism to the minimum. Taking the second task first, what we are facing today is enormously worrying. Exports have been hit hard as booked orders are being cancelled because of uncertainty in the war zone and the rate of booking of new orders has gone down considerably. We are also losing the competitive edge in the international markets because war insurance surcharges and shipping rates have gone up as Pakistan has been designated as forming part of the war zone. In addition, Pakistan, along with similarly placed countries, is being obliged to pay for the cost of even checking for anthrax at the port of delivery. The strengthening of the rupee has also added to the cost factor in the equation. Also, because of the growing hostility of the ordinary citizens in the importing countries towards the Muslims generally, the demand for Pakistani goods is following a downward curve in the rich markets. Compounding all this is the deepening international recession. We cannot do much about the last factor.
But we can mount a well-planned and well-focused campaign to improve Pakistan’s image in the importing countries, get the shipping and insurance companies to bring their charges back to normal levels and convince the buyers to at least not pass the entire anthrax testing charges onto Pakistan which is already suffering both politically and economically for being the second most active partner in the international coalition at war against terrorism. The first task of prioritizing our socio-economic needs and planning is equally formidable and challenging. Here the official economic managers would be well advised to do some in-depth study of the past experience with the aid flows to know the reasons for their misuse and inefficient utilization and make future projections of at least about 25 years to identify the most essential socio-economic development projects to be taken in hand this time.
A GENERAL strike has been called for Friday by groups opposed to the government’s support for the air strikes against Afghanistan, with owners of public transport being asked by the organizers not to bring their vehicles out on the road. Understandably and with good reason, the Sindh government is sensing trouble and has said that it will deal sternly with anyone trying to damage public or private property or engage in acts of arson and lawlessness. In the past, similar pronouncements have been made prior to strikes but on the day of the protest, violence and disruption did take place. This time, though, the Sindh police have said that they intend to use water cannons to control or disperse protesters. In addition to that, a helicopter will be used and video films will be made of demonstrators to keep track of possible troublemakers.
This new approach to keeping peace and public order is commendable. However, the success of any strategy that seeks to curb violence will depend on the efficiency of enforcement. Having said that, filming a mob or using a helicopter to keep track of potential mischief-makers may seem innovative but they can never substitute for basic law enforcement and policing on the ground. Which means that police personnel deployed to deal with a specific situation need to be adequately briefed and properly led to be able to handle a potentially volatile mob. This is crucial because any lapse or highhandedness on the part of the police force — as often happens — can cause violence to spiral out of control. Another important prerequisite for tackling problems of violence and disorder is good and reliable intelligence, something our police force sorely lacks. This means not only keeping track of potential troublemakers but also knowing accurately where they might turn up — in effect being able to pre-empt their designs. Hopefully, the law enforcement authorities will keep these factors in mind when preparing to deal with Friday’s strike.