October 22, 2001	Monday	Shaba'an 4, 1422

YET again, an intricate relationship between politics and economics is being borne out in the aftermath of the September 11 attack on the US. The prompt waiver of nuclear sanctions that Pakistan had been pleading for years followed by a softening of the US stance on the democracy-related sanctions clearly shows that external environmental factors dictate the primacy of one political variable over another.

Following the end of the Cold War, the new goals were peace and democracy. These, in turn, inter alia dictated the direction of the US foreign policy priorities at that time. Confronted with another war-like situation now, the goals of disarmament and democracy immediately took a back seat as the new threat of terrorism had to be confronted politically and militarily on a priority basis. As for the economic measures, these assumed the nature of weaponry deployed to help the US achieve its strategic goals.

Currently, economic policies and plans, if any, are means to achieve the political goals rather than any explicit economic goal which will not surface until the military dust has settled. So, waiver of sanctions at this time, prompt rescheduling of loans by the US, and provision of OPIC cover etc should afford little surprise. These were in consideration of Pakistan’s overt support to the coalition which it joined in its very own political interest too. Whether or not Pakistan is able to convert its immediate political interests into long-term strategic advantage will depend not only on the vision of Pakistan’s leadership but also on the new vision that the US leadership might be developing for the world in the aftermath of September 11.

This time around, the new the US vision may not develop in isolation and to the exclusion of many in the world. If a Muslim theologian has been provided access to the highest levels of the US policy making corridors, then certainly Pakistan could exploit its current relevance to play a role in shaping up the new regional view of the US, if not its world view. While a new world order aiming at peace and prosperity has to be all inclusive, a “globalizing” world would remain least globalized if it continued to push the less advantaged to the fringes of a world order. As the post-Cold War world “order” actually led to more disorder by ignoring those who had lost relevance for the more integrating developed world, the post-September 11 world order should strive to restore order to the world by factoring in the concerns of the marginalized.

Then alone will an orderly world configuration emerge as a means to peace and prosperity desired by all. Unless the new world vision of the powerful of the world is all-encompassing as above, strife and warfare will continue to evolve and take new shapes. the resources of the world will keep getting consumed fighting the ever-evolving threats created by none other than a misconceived world view.

If wisdom begins to dawn on the powers-that-be, then certainly the prospects for the region should turn out to be bright politically as well as economically. This is an optimistic scenario. For the current war to root out terrorism symptomatically is likely to be a protracted one which may not, however, be said for the operation twists and turns as well which might not enable the powers-that-be to focus on handling the political fallout economically. If the operation in Afghanistan, however, ends earlier than the war does, the world might then choose to engage it economically. At this juncture, Pakistan should not only acquire a role but a share in the positive economic fallout as it is a major strategic player in the region. I will revert to this possibility later.

A pessimistic scenario would imply that either no lessons have been learnt from the post-Cold War history or there are forces at work that continue to inhibit a truly enlightened outlook. these pernicious forces would comprise racial and religious prejudices, ethnocentricism, or even xenophobia. All of these would exacerbate the racial and inter-faith tensions thus leading to greater polarization. While such tendencies are skillfully managed or concealed by the more diplomatic and suave developed world, the scenario that is likely to prevail will fall somewhere in between the two extremes of the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios above.

While the actual blend between the two extremes will depend largely on the post-crisis disposition of the big powers; it will also be a function of the inputs from the developing countries. After all, the OIC and other lesser countries have thus far demonstrated during the current crisis that they are not altogether irrelevant in world affairs. The onus will, therefore, also be on developing countries in general and Pakistan in particular given its front line role yet again in this war against terrorism.

It is against the above backdrop that we can dwell upon the economic prospects of Pakistan from the crisis. And, economic prospects of Pakistan can neither be isolated from the shape that the current war might take nor from the politico-economic future of Afghanistan. For, the country’s law and order situation is a major determinant of the economic climate in the country which, in turn, determines the investment mood and economic growth possibilities. Peace and prosperity in Afghanistan or the lack of the same is a factor that contributes significantly to Pakistan’s law and order situation. Given the intimate relationship enjoyed by the two countries thus far, their economic prospects too might be closely intertwined after the operation, if the big powers take a broader view of the issues thus far.

Whether the world sees the above situation similarly will depend not only upon the big powers’ interests following the operation in Afghanistan but also upon Pakistan’s ability to market a regional strategy for peace after outliving its immediate utility in the Afghanistan operation.

That Pakistan graduates from a temporary strategic role to a more long-term one will depend upon the vision that Pakistan develops for itself during the current process. So, while the big powers are contemplating to revive the Middle East peace process with the Republicans having seen the importance of a Palestinian state, one prong of their anti-terrorism strategy is revealed. That is, to get to the more visible roots or causes of terrorism and to try to address them again. In the process, the offshoot in Afghanistan will need to be addressed through a regional strategy for peace and security including economic security. Amongst the roots, a related source lies in Kashmir which Pakistan will need to demonstrate as such to be able to draw world attention to its peaceful resolution. The probability of success here should be high considering the heightened level of world interest in issues of violence and violation of human rights and causes of terrorism. Ironically, the September 11 attacks have opened a window of opportunity in the above direction that Pakistan should be able to capitalize upon without which again economic prospects would remain firm. For, political issues cast a shadow on the economic landscape which fails to inspire confidence in the economic players.

So, one way of reaching the end of the dark economic tunnel is by getting some of the above reviewed political issues unfrozen that have remained sticky thus far. the other window of opportunity is likely to open after the other prong of anti-terrorism strategy has been executed by addressing the symptoms in the neighbourhood. the big powers are likely to demonstrate an interest in the uplift and development of Afghanistan. While both the American and the British have accepted their mistake of ignoring Afghanistan after the en of the Cold War, they are likely to replicate another part of history. After the end of the Cold War, it was the seat of communism they thought they should help develop so as to prevent a revival of the old communistic ideology. Likewise, after the end of an anti-terrorism battle in Afghanistan, they are likely to preempt a revival of the conservative sentiment in the country. Whether it would lead to a reconstruction and development effort will depend a great deal upon the new vision that the Afghan leadership will display. For, Western models of development are based upon a certain rationality driven by individual self-interest.

These models succeed in countries where they find matching attitudes, institutions, and values. Traditional societies like Afghanistan’s have been driven by group, clan, and tribal interests which would hardly have a capacity to absorb the liberal market ideology based on individual self-interest. How Afghanistan is steered through this process of change towards economic development for integration with the rest of the world remains to be seen. For, consumption of alien development models is a process quite different from the consumption of wheat, milk, and biscuits. A traditional society with its own value-system might display absolutely none or limited appetite for a model based on a diametrically opposite value system. Afghanistan’s economic development will pose a major challenge for the world as it would require attitudinal, institutional, social, and political sea-change.

Pakistan enjoying the closest proximity with Afghanistan not just geographically but also culturally and religiously should continue to enjoy a front line status during this stage of Afghanistan’s socio-economic reconstruction and development as well. For, Pakistan’s traditional-modern societal mix can serve to bridge the gap that currently exists between Afghanistan and the developed world. If Pakistan is able to demonstrate its relevance as above in the post-operation phase, it will not outlive its utility as it usually does after the world’s battles end in Afghanistan.

There can then be a talk of Pakistan’s long-term economic prospects from the crisis. However, clarity of goals will be required together with a determination to rid the society from some of its traditional evils such as third degree corruption, highly iniquitous distribution of both assets and incomes, and anti-development attitudes for all of which we ourselves are responsible. Economic prospects from the September 11 fallout will remain bleak unless we clean up our own house too. In addition, we will need to have the political and politico-economic issues on the border hammered out with a problem-solving mindset. Then alone might we able to demonstrate a certain utility for world stability in consideration of which the world might adopt a more enduring cooperative stance towards our economic development. BABU KHAN OUTPUT: EBR FILE NAME: MAH-16 120 cm